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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement is handed the prize. However, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

However the latest race is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and recent strugglers improving together. During an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still