A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
